By William O. Beeman

There is a danger in being too sanguine about the situation of the three hikers who transgressed the Iranian border and were today charged with spying in Iran, but this follows the same pattern that has been seen now six or seven times. Someone is involved with a minor infraction, or just heightened suspicion. The Iranian government charges them with spying to squeeze the greatest possible propaganda value from the situation. They are generally treated humanely and undergo a show trial, and are usually released, or allowed to depart after having posted bail as a sign of Iranian humanitarian generosity. If past experience is any predictor, this is how this situation will play out as well.

The spying charges become believable to a domestic Iranian audience because of the consistent pattern of past interference by the United States in Iranian affairs, and George W. Bush’s flat statement that we have agents operating in Iran—something the Iranians absolutely know to be true. Iran is of course trying to make a point to the external world as well—stop spying on us!

We have two new stars at the State Department in Washington—John Limbert (Iran) and Tamara Wittes (Near East), both of whom have superb credentials on Iran. They will have to deal with this. The situation is also variable due to the ongoing nuclear negotiations. One can bet that these three are being presented as chips in the negotiations—or possible signs of “good faith.” The three hikers were caught in Iranian territory without visas or documentation. The United States treats similar infractions with utmost harshness, so we have very little to say on this matter from a legal standpoint. Asking for clemency is really the proper way to go, though it is going to stick in the craw of many right-wingers. Certainly condemning the Iranian government is foolish. The United States doesn’t have a leg to stand on here.

The case of Iranian-American Kian Tajbakhsh, also charged with spying in Iran, is linked with this case as well.