A friend’s status message on Facebook sums up the elections in India best.
Exactly the results India needed – the Left and the Right out of the Centre.
India’s Communist parties got a drubbing in the elections even in their red-lined states. The BJP which was positioning itself to lead a new coalition saw its vote share (and number of seats ) shrink . Instead the hoary old Congress party took its coalition to another term in power.
Some India-watchers heaved a sigh of relief. The Left which has been blocking the US-Indian nuclear deal and other open market reforms is licking its wounds. The BJP with its more hawkish Hindutva agenda is going to have it bide its time. But none of this is a sea change in Indian politics.
In a way this election just bought a little time.
Manmohan Singh, India’s Prime Minister is in his seventies and recovering from multiple bypass surgery. It’s heartening to see a completely uncharismatic man with little rabble-rousing potential but innate decency lead his party to victory. But this is probably his last term in office.
The BJP’s hardline leader L.K. Advani, projected as its prime ministerial candidate does not even want to be the Leader of the Opposition anymore. He senses his time has passed.
So in a way this election already cleared the decks for the next one.
This means all eyes in India turn to yet another Gandhi – Rahul Gandhi who was his party’s star campaigner and will now probably be inducted into the cabinet to be groomed for the PM’s chair.
On the BJP’s side, its formidable (and notorious) firebrand chief minister Narendra Modi might try and make a pitch to become a national leader. Ever since the deadly Gujarat riots in 2002, Modi has become persona non grata around the world (his U.S. visa revoked) but remains hugely popular in Gujarat. Though this election saw his party’s vote share shrink in Gujarat as well this might be Modi’s chance to come out onto the national stage and project himself as a future Prime Minister.
This in itself would be remarkable. The first time the BJP won the most seats it could not even put together a coalition, its Hindu-nationalist label scaring away coalition partners.
Next time around it managed to lead a coalition by projecting Atal Behari Vajpayee, the silver tongued poet as its more moderate face and keeping the hardline L.K. Advani in the background. At least its not Advani, it told India’s anxious urban middle class.
This time around Advani was the projected leader. The subtext was “At least it’s not the divisive Narendra Modi.”
Next time around the rehabilitation of Narendra Modi might be complete.
Unless one of the new young Turks of the BJP rises up. One of them is another Gandhi, Varun Gandhi – Rahul’s cousin – was arrested during the campaign for his communally charged remarks. He was released and won his election.
This parliament will see four Gandhi’s taking their seats – two on each side of the aisle. The family business never had it so good.
Sonia and her son Rahul will be with the Congress. Her estranged sister-in-law Maneka and her son Varun will be with the BJP. Gandhi vs Gandhi next time around? It would be scary if India’s ruling party and its leading opposition both turned into reruns of Dynasty. You can run but you cannot hide. Whichever door you open, there’s a Gandhi.