One major story of the 2004 presidential election is the emergence of minorities. These increasingly visible groups are poised to play a significant role in America’s 21st Century.

The numbers are all there in plain sight. Based on the U.S. Census, by 2050, ethnic population will increase to one-half of the total population.

Hispanic group will be 24.4% of the total population, or about one out of four Americans. Already for a while now, women represent 51% to 53% and the majority in many college campuses nationwide. Though comprised a mere 4.2% of the population in 2000, this diverse community (i.e., Filipino, Chinese, Vietnamese, Korean) has one of the nation’s highest birthrate (along side with the Hispanic group) and is expected to double at 8% in 2050.

African American population will also increase, though small, from 12.7% to 14.6%.

White population, especially the white males, has been shrinking and aging. By 2030, about 1-in-5 people would be 65 or over. White baby-boomer population (born between 1946 and 1964) will dominate this category.

California is the state that tends to set the socio-economic-political trends for the rest of the country. The U.S. Census 2000 shows California has become the first “mainland” state whose population majority are ethnic groups, 55% of the total 32 millions (Hawaii is the first state with a minority majority). Recent Census Bureau surveys report that Texas, Florida, New Mexico, and the District of Columbia are also now minority-majority states. Next are Maryland, Mississippi, Georgia, New York and Arizona.

The large field of Democratic candidates started with 5 white males, one Hispanic, one woman, and one Black. About one year later, it’s the woman and African American candidates who have generated the most excitement and pulled out record-breaking voters from all social spectrum. For the minority populations, the 2004 presidential election has a special resonance. Never in their lives have there ever been candidates whom these populations could “really connect on a personal” level with until now.

The “connection” factor is also true for the youth. Ever since 18-years-old Americans were allowed to vote 1972, their voter turnouts had been small. But this election is different. According Matt Presser who wrote in the American-Statesman Staff, “about 80 percent of voters ages 18-29 who were polled by Rock the Vote say they plan to vote in November, compared with the 49 percent in that age group who voted in 2004”.

The number of racially mixed population is unknown at this point, but for certain it’s growing. It’s safe to say that the Tiger-Wood demographics are more than likely to vote for Obama than McCain. Never before, this Hapa (Hawaiian term for mixed descent) group has a candidate whom they could truly identify with. Befittingly, Obama grew up in Hawaii and has a stepsister who is half Indonesian. And America, perhaps for the first time, is beginning to have a national conversation about “race” in the social-cultural context without the automatic “-ism” attached.

Even if neither Obama nor Clinton wins the election, the floodgate has been open for civic engagement and participation for these ethnic groups. In the future, there will be more and more political candidates from these emerging demographic populations. That’s the beauty of America: constantly re-invigorating itself.
—Julian Do